Economic Environment
Main Features of the Economy
Bangladesh is
a least developed country (LDC), but it is expected to graduate from this
status in 2024 (Section 2.1.3). Strong GDP growth over the past decade has
resulted in GDP per capita increasing to USD 1,675 (Tables 1.1 and 1.2) and
Bangladesh crossing the World Bank's threshold to lower middle-income country
status in 2015. Growth has also resulted in a decline in poverty levels, which
fell to 21.8% in fiscal year (FY) 2018 and an improvement in other social
indicators, such as infant mortality
and life expectancy. Inequality as measured
by the Gini coefficient remained largely unchanged, at around
0.32 during the review period. The services sector is the largest contributor to
GDP, accounting for nearly 56% of GDP in 2017/18, followed by industry (30%, of
which manufacturing 19%) and agriculture, fisheries and forestry (13.8%).
Recently, the construction sector has also become an important contributor to
GDP. Prudent macroeconomic management has resulted in declining price levels,
relatively low unemployment and manageable external debt levels (Table
1.1). Furthermore, it is estimated that a sizable
portion of the economy
is informal, implying that GDP and GDP per capita
are significantly underestimated, thereby reducing the
effectiveness of government policy.
|
2011/12
|
2012/13
|
2013/14
|
2014/15
|
2015/16
|
2016/17
|
2017/18
|
National accounts (% change, unless
otherwise
indicated)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP
(at 2005/06 prices)
|
6.5
|
6.0
|
6.1
|
6.6
|
7.1
|
7.3
|
7.9
|
Consumption
|
4.0
|
5.2
|
4.3
|
6.0
|
3.4
|
7.5
|
11.4
|
Private
consumption
|
4.1
|
5.1
|
4.0
|
5.8
|
3.0
|
7.4
|
11.0
|
Government
consumption
|
3.1
|
5.8
|
7.9
|
8.8
|
8.4
|
7.8
|
15.4
|
Gross fixed capital formation
|
10.6
|
5.4
|
9.9
|
7.1
|
8.9
|
10.1
|
10.5
|
Exports
of goods and non-factor services
|
12.5
|
2.5
|
3.2
|
-2.8
|
2.2
|
-2.3
|
8.1
|
Imports
of goods and non-factor services
|
10.5
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
3.2
|
-7.1
|
2.9
|
27.0
|
XGS/GDP (%) (at current market
price)
|
20.2
|
19.5
|
19.0
|
17.3
|
16.6
|
15.0
|
14.8
|
MGS/GDP (%) (at current market
price)
|
27.9
|
26.8
|
25.5
|
24.7
|
21.3
|
20.3
|
23.4
|
Prices
and interest rates
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inflation
(CPI, % change)
|
8.7
|
6.8
|
7.3
|
6.4
|
5.9
|
5.4
|
5.8
|
Deposit
rate (%, end-period)
|
8.15
|
11.79
|
9.81
|
8.52
|
6.10
|
5.52
|
7.52
|
Lending
rate (%, end-period)
|
13.75
|
13.67
|
13.10
|
11.67
|
10.39
|
9.56
|
9.95
|
Exchange rate
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BDT/USD
(annual average)
|
79.10
|
79.93
|
77.72
|
77.67
|
78.26
|
79.12
|
82.11
|
Real
effective exchange rate (2015/16=100)
|
72.5
|
79.5
|
82.8
|
94.6
|
100.0
|
102.4
|
..
|
Money and credit (% change)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Broad money (M2)
|
17.4
|
16.7
|
16.1
|
12.4
|
16.3
|
10.9
|
9.2
|
Total
domestic credit
|
19.5
|
11.0
|
11.6
|
10.0
|
14.2
|
11.2
|
14.7
|
Credit to
private sector
|
19.7
|
10.8
|
12.3
|
13.2
|
16.8
|
15.7
|
17.0
|